2 PENETRATION AND GNI Mobile phone and Internet penetration are highly correlated with GNI per capita. Relatively developed countries are more likely to have the right mix of infrastructure and human capital required to develop the telecommunication industry. It is perhaps not surprising that together with the other least-developed African countries in the 2017 After Access Survey conducted across 16 countries in Global South, Mozambique had among the lowest mobile phone and Internet penetration rates. Rwanda (with 50%) has a higher mobile phone penetration rate than Mozambique (40%), but an even lower Internet penetration rate at nine percent to Mozambique’s ten percent. This finding is perhaps surprising, because people and Mozambican authorities may be more familiar with the supply side indicators produced by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) and which, because it is only global data available, is used not only in the ICT Development Index, but also in other indices such as the WEF Network Readiness Index, GSMA’s Mobile Connectedness Index and Facebook EIU’s 3i. 14 000 91 86 12 000 85 75 89 84 73 87 88 65 63 53 8 000 65 61 19 17 0 a tin en bia lom Co th ou ica Afr S ru Pe y ua rag Pa ala tem a Gu ia Ind Mobile phone ownership a eri Nig 26 15 r Internet use 26 13 sh tan ma de yan gla n M Ba kis Pa 40 36 30 2 000 61 50 30 4 000 68 61 57 6 000 Arg 75 74 73 10 000 The ITU estimate is based on information collected from countries’ regulatory authorities, which comes from the mobile operators. The ITU indicator counts the number of active SIMs rather than measures unique subscribers and tends to overestimate penetration levels, especially in Africa where the majority of mobile subscribers use more than one SIM card. In prepaid mobile markets, it is simply not possible to get accurate supply side data on the number of users. National representative demand side data from household and individual user surveys is the only way in prepaid mobile markets to establish the exact number of people with mobile phones or who are online through public access points. It is also the only way that data can be disaggregated by sex, income, education, age, urban or rural locations, which is required for policy and regulatory purposes. This is also the only way to determine progress made towards attaining the ICT targets that underpin several of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). a an Gh dia bo m Ca a ny Ke nia nza Ta 10 9 da an Rw GDP per capita (current US$) 2016 ue 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 biq m oza M Figure 1: Mobile phone ownership, Internet use and GNI per capita Source: RIA After Access survey data, 2017; World Bank, 2018 160% 147% 1,5 1 87% 80% 85% 136% 74% 0,5 0 Kenya South Africa Ghana RIA ITU SIM card penetration Mean SIM cards owned 2 120% 63% 83% 59% Nigeria Tanzania Mean SIM card ownership 80% 75% 72% 48% 40% Rwanda 40% 52% Mozambique 0% Figure 2: Comparison of ITU active subscribers against 2017 RIA After Access survey data Source: RIA After Access survey data, 2017; IDI, 2017 Penetration and GNI 2