6 the Order notes that, after the Commission proposed tougher rules, the stocks of telecommunications companies outperformed the broader market. Order ¶ 360. This might be interesting if the Commission had performed a sophisticated analysis trying to hold other factors constant. In the absence of such an analysis, the evidence shows only that the threat of regulation was not so onerous as to precipitate radical stock market losses. The Order also has a quotation from the Time Warner Cable COO saying, in response to an FCC announcement of possible Title II classification (accompanied by some vague Commission assurances), “So . . . yes, we will continue to invest.” Id. n.986 (emphasis added by the Commission). Citation of this remark would be an apt response to a strawman argument that there would have been no investment in broadband if the new rules had always applied, but not to the argument that a significant portion of the current investment was made in reliance on the old regime. Further, it is reasonable to expect that corporate executives—with their incentives to enhance the firm’s appearance as an attractive investment opportunity and thus to keep its cost of capital down—would take the most favorable view of a new policy consistent with their obligations to investors not to paint too rosy a picture. A more important (and logically prior) question is why this evidence matters at all. I take Fox’s position on reliance interests to be addressed to both fairness and efficiency. If a regulatory switch will significantly undercut the productivity and value of past investments, made in reasonable reliance on the old regime, rudimentary fairness suggests that the agency should take that into account in evaluating a possible switch. And a pattern of capricious change would undermine any agency purpose of encouraging future investment on the basis of new rules. But the effect of past policy on past investment is quite different from future levels of investment. For example, the Environmental Protection Agency’s new